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Monday, 23 January 2017

Post Take-Over Collapse: How Will Fawaz Fund Forest?

Since the deal with the Americans collapsed there has been a lot of conjecture as to how Fawaz will fund the club through to the end of the season or at least prior to any further takeovers.

The weekend has seen a lot of off the pitch intrigue aside from the win at Forest. Fawaz perhaps somewhat emboldened by the past week or so has released a couple of statements and has even employed a new Chief Financial Officer.

The overall question will be though how will fund a club he clearly has so desperately tried avoided paying for. With both failed takeovers having had a period of time paying the wages, and even a debate with Marinakis around 2% of the deal down to the July Payment run (Fawaz didn’t want to pay) now Fawaz has to fund the club till you’d think June at the earliest, as no one is going to want to assume control of Forest until their future next season is assured.

That based on the SwissRamble piece and his proposed yearlong losses for 2015-16 being in the region of £21.5 million, I will therefore putting the running costs for the end of the season at £7mill. These are rough round up figures. We have now since this was calculated sold Lansbury and had a Bamford windfall which now comes in at around £4-4.5 million. There’s still a hefty short fall there and unless Fawaz has somehow secured backing then it might be a struggle.

The Burke money might have a little left over to fill the gap, but I figure that’d also go towards paying off Montanier. Not a penny of that has been spent up till yet. On any players, aside from the few hundred thousand on Portuguese flop Lica.

The following table shows the players linked with January with quoted figures in the press, with their rumoured wages.

Value of players for sale
wages saved (Est)
Value of Potential Transfer fees

That amounts to £24.2 mill. Obviously these figures could change or be wrong, if that be wages or the final fee. A total saving of around £90k per week on wages might also appeal to Fawaz. That figure also closely resembles the annual losses. But forgets the Burke, de Vries and Paterson fees.

Now obviously Lansbury has gone. That’s supposedly another £25k p/w saved on wages too, which equates to half a million quid there or there abouts. Now when players leave they often have loyalty bonuses built in, this may or may not be the case and we don’t know what fees might be payable there.

So taking the figures we are losing a year. That’s 400k per week rounded. That’d need £9mill to fund us to till June. This was all calculated at 22 weeks to start of June.  That’s right now looking at needing £8.5 mill to fund us with no further sales. Will Fawaz make up that gap? Maybe.

But that excludes what I said above about Burke and Co. So if we consider that equated to £13.5 mill, plus the Lansbury and Bamford fees, that’d be £17.5mill. So there’s still £4million to offset in the wider picture of yearly losses. Around the figure Osborn has been quoted as having been bid for.
Again, this basing figures on previous published figures. Things might be better/worse in this picture than what we are quoting. And if we sold Mancienne for instance, that’d be £550k we have saved wages wise, plus any fee bought in.

All in all it looks likely that if things are too believed, further player sales will be needed.
Put that against what one person told me that Fawaz current UK Bank balance is about £150k (how they know this I don’t knowso probabaly bollocks) and that he has been selling cars it would certainly look like he won’t be funding us, unless the family have given him funds to fund us till we get a new buyer and offset that loss. It’d also explain why he is holding out for bigger fees. Emad likes to peddle this is Fawaz life savings line. It’s not, its money lent to him by his family. Which he in turn loaned Forest. The debts are loans essentially to the al-Hasawi family.

I calculated this to see how many players he could sell to recoup losses before selling to Moores later or to any other buyer. If he held out to June and sold off assets to sell, what would he sell and then need to get back to his £50mill, but it’s become more about what he needs to run us.

I predict further sales. I hope I am wrong and that Fawaz has secured funds from elsewhere. 

Otherwise it might get even rockier.
Friday, 13 January 2017

Takeover Fails. We Are Doomed.

A couple of hours ago Fawaz announced that he had ended negotiations on the deal with the American consortium headed up by John Jay Moores to buy Nottingham Forest. The wording made it all look like Fawaz had done us a favour and massaged his ego. The ‘partial sale’ rather than a majority share was mentioned. Yes 80% is only a part of 100% but it’s already trying to downplay what has happened.

Other vague comments about it not being right for the fans or the club which of course are utter tripe as it boils down to pure greed and money. Fawaz never considered the fans or the club for one second in this negotiation but the benefit of his bank account. If he was going to fail as Chairman he still wanted to at least make some cash out of it. At the end of the day his vanity project has failed and he has wasted a lot of cash he needs to recoup.

Now with half the transfer window gone and no new investment coming we are left floundering in a relegation fight with players who don’t want to be here and a manager knowing his days are numbered.

Fawaz said the deal wasn’t in the interest of the long term future of the club. This is extremely interesting, because Fawaz has never acted in the long term benefit of the club. Transfer deals which could have seen bigger fees were accepted because money was upfront. That was definitely the case with Burke and almost certainly with Antonio. I can’t remember if it was for Darlow and Lascelles but he certainly got cash up front, I’m just not sure if other offers were on the table.

How can he claim this is in the best interests of the long term future when he has constantly acted in a way that has always been short termism. Hiring and firing managers with no long projected aim. No infrastructure, no planned scouting. Just knee jerk reaction after knee jerk reaction. There has never been a plan other than a vague spend spend spend till we get promoted. That put us under embargo and set the club back. The stadium has never been invested in other than cosmetics.

There has never been any semblance of a plan. So how can Fawaz be acting in the best faith when the new regime would have had a plan. How can the man have the temerity to say he has the best interests and that this isn’t right for Forest, when he doesn’t have a clue and isn’t investing? The past year or so he has got by on player sales. The Antonio cash was never realistically invested, The Burke cash certainly hasn’t. And yet the man has never admitted that sales were needed to keep going.

This is because of his brash arrogance and vanity. He has to be seen to be a success. In his word success is cash. If he admits he’s skint and that he can’t go cap in hand to the family any more than its embarrassing to himself. So he blags it out at Forest and makes out he’s rich. This is lapped up by idiots and by career journalists like Natalie Jackson more bothered about getting the big interview than actually asking any important questions. Oh yeah eh you ask Fawaz his aims he says third stars but the man never actually went into anything deeper than this. Because Fawaz is as deep as a puddle. He is so shallow.

This deal almost certainly failed because Fawaz felt he wanted more cash. Not the interests of Forest. Not for one second would he have considered the offer on the table would benefit the club. He only considered his bank account. We have been lied to time and time again.

So what do we do? We boycott. He’s already losing millions. So make him lose a few more. The clubs on a hiding to nothing with him in charge, so let’s screw his bank accounts over even more. The idiot probably doesn’t realise how hated he is. He has to know that he has to go.

Someone pointed out something on Twitter. They tagged Fawaz and asked him what the plan from here is. Why has the deal been refused, why wasn’t it right. Now Fawaz will come out with more vague comments about feeling it wasn’t the best for fans without really outlining why his plan (there isn’t one) is better. He won’t ever say this is what we need to do. Montanier will be sacked and what then? Which manager would want to work under these conditions with this whacko in charge?

Our best periods of form this season were when take overs were on the cards. What does that tell you? The players are excited and motivated when he might be off. When they dragged on form dropped. God knows what will happen at Birmingham.

All I do know is that this club is on life support. And the plug just got pulled.
Thursday, 12 January 2017

Don't Panic! Don't Panic!

There’s a storm brewing. And it’s mainly one in a tea cup. Fans are getting agitated that there isn’t almost constant feed of information coming out the club about the latest on the takeover.

Quite what or why they demand this is a bit unclear to me. They just demand UPDATES!

The club are not going to start dealing out updates as to all intents and purposes it’s not them to deal with. This is a deal between one man and another man (or group of men) buying a company. Things like this are usually almost clandestine behind the scenes stuff till it’s all agreed and then it can be announced that the second party has bought the first party’s product.

If Forest had started updates as some fans demanded, then this creates a rod for their own back. For one, how often do you provide updates on something that might not have moved? Do you do a set periodic one based on a timeframe, or every time someone does something and to what degree do they want updating. And what if they said things look hopeful or optimistic? Then a host of fans read everything into that comment and get angry when something changes.

Some of them I swear want the whole negotiation being dictated live over Twitter.

We live in era when many things do evolve almost live, but that depends on the people involved. Fans over 4 years have grown accustomed to Fawaz living his life over twitter, but the new owners don’t have that presence, so will these fans get angry that some things are kept more secret.

The club could greatly improve its social media management. Having a more active Twitter, Facebook or Instagram, and one where the fans could feel they are responded to. You see many clubs with quite an interactive social media presence and that connects fans to the club. Under Fawaz it was very much, that interaction comes from him and the club acts as only a medium of news, (But not exciting shiny news, that may only come from Fawaz to maximise the Fawaz-love)

Barry Bloom, like Antonis Oikonimidis before him,  became an unwitting centre of attention by simply being able to relate some news. With connections to the people involved in the deal they could at least relate that yes, it was on, and whether things were moving in a certain direction. They then get bombarded by inpatient, at times ridiculous, fans demanding information about the deal because they happened to know a few details. Again, it’s the information age we live in,  everything has to be almost live broadcast, no slow drip feeds, but NOW NOW NOW!

Then you get some people who treat this all as if it’s high drama, rather than very slow careful business transaction. “Why isn’t it done yet” well because people don’t want like rushing into multi million pound/dollar investments. Due diligence and careful negotiation are key. Yes we need to be done sooner, but I’m also sure JJ Mores doesn’t want to rush things and inadvertently find he’s now responsible for something he could have avoid through careful diligence.

People are so desperate for updates they will literally believe anything before actually considering if this source is credible, is it real, is it realistic, or if they are being duped. Some accounts have been borderline crazed during the period of time since JJ Moores apparently landed in the UK.

So when things have been a bit stale or stationary for a number of days in come conspiracy theories. In come crazed ideas, or wild speculation. Or plain straight made up stuff for attention. You know who you are if you are reading this.

People are crazily refreshing twitter for news. Maybe just maybe relax. It won’t change anything. This deal will or won’t happen without or without your ramblings on Twitter. Go outside, or make a cup of tea. Just don’t get obsessed with the ‘will they/won’t they’ element of it, because you won’t change a thing. Other than make a few hairs go grey.
Monday, 9 January 2017

Fawaz May be a Disaster but He is Not the Worst Owner in all of Football

There has been an of repeated refrain this week on Social Media

“Fawaz is the worst Football club owner in history”

“There can’t be any worse chairman that Fawaz”

Or so the hyperbole on Social media goes.

Although we can all agree Fawaz is less than ideal this indicates a huge level of ignorance. The Oystons have led Blackpool from the top flight to league Two in an alarmingly quick succession of relegations through lack of investment. Fawaz has merely returned us to where he found us (for now) he is not in league with the Oystons. SISU at Coventry have seen the club playing in Northampton, as well as seeing the club in real danger of going out of business languishing in League One.

Stephen Vaughan has twice seen clubs have huge problems. A former Amateur boxer with underground connections,  at Barrow he over invested and involved Liverpool gangsters with running the club, even holding a minutes silence for a murdered gangster. At Chester oversaw the clubs eventual demise, as well as then being banned from being involved as Director after a tax fraud scam with Widnes Viking sin Rugby League. Chester City as they were, no longer exist.

Just now Morecambe's Brazilian owner has gone awol and the club is in dire financial trouble. Wages haven't been paid, Training pitches are owned by a company set aside and that company has gone bust and is now under administration from a property expert. Perhaps to be sold for land.

Just locally you had the Munto scenario at Notts County, which very nearly killed them and saddled with huge debts. A house of cards built from shady deals and secret promises of money including from North Korea, it was all a cover which imploded. Mansfield Town were locked out of their ground by former chairman Keith Haslam who was widely vilified by Stags fans.

It is an interesting debate whether Fawaz is indeed worse than Scholar and Wray. Remember they're short termism nearly led us to the brink of financial collapse. As well as repercussions for being involved with two sporting clubs (Wrays involvement with Wasps and thus a huge controlling interest at Vicarage Road) Some fans lost decent wedges of cash on badly run share schemes that tanked (my Dad included) and then tried to sue the club when it was taken over from them saying it was unlawful. We ran a full Scholar and Wray article on here several years ago if you care to read. (Here Forest Villains: Scholar & Wray) Ok the club got promoted to the Top flight, and many top players were signed, but the legacy was years of financial toil, coupled with ITV Digital collapse and lead to having to sell all our best youngsters and jettison top players on the most money. Its arguable it forced us to develop the likes of Dawson and Reid, but it also meant we never saw the bloom.

Fawaz is a nightmare. He will soon be gone. But he is not the worst chairman ever. He hasn't treid to grind us into oblivion. He's just an idiot who makes many many gaffs.He's not crimin
al negligent like above.
Thursday, 5 January 2017

Silly Season in Rumoursville

A new year brings January, and January brings the Transfer Window. For one month bored kids and students get to pretend they are some kind of informed transfer guru and set up a Twitter feed in which they hope to get thousands and followers. They invariably get couple of dozen before they get bored.

We are linked with a few players, which is laughable, as we under embargo again because we didn’t submit our accounts. Furthermore that takeover means there will be changes in direction and strategy. As we don’t know who the club will employ there's no idea who their targets would be, therefore why are we being linked with players like Omar Bogle. Laziness. Lets just link successful lower league player with a host of mid range Championship clubs because…why not?

The links to players leaving are worrying but again, theres no-one left with a remit to accept bids. If Fawaz does he endangers the takeover and as he wants out theres no way he’d do that again. That said offers are supposedly flying in for Lansbury, with new bids apparently for Lansbury from Derby. Perhaps they misunderstood that turning down of the offer, as no we can’t accept as theres no-one to accept as just increasing the offers. Could make an interesting bidding war.

You have two top Premiership sides suppedly bidding for Ben Brereton, which is very akin to Patrick Bamford and the whole situation around his leaving. However, Bamford had to be sold as his contract was expiring. At least Brereton has a contract so we don;t feel forced to sell.

Now this is all before we begin on the mass rumour cluster fuck that is Fawaz and the sale to John Jay Moores. Apparently (rumour 1) the Americans finished everything at their end before Christmas, December 22 to be exact, Fawaz has been sat waiting to finalise the deal and the Americans cannot understand what the hell he is stalling on.

Rumour 2 in this whole sorry tale is that Fawaz intends to try and cash out another couple of assets before he sells. This seems unlikely. I doubt he can act without the Americans permission, and selling any asset would be frowned upon, whether it be a fringe player of the club captain and talisman Henri Lansbury. This is unless of course you believe rumour 3 that Fawaz is simply hoping the US dollar suffers in the lead up to Trumps ascendancy to power and maximises his value. That implies Fawaz has any business acumen at all.

The moving goalposts rumour (4) is along the lines of the Daily Mail article, whereby he's changing the deal. That would appear to be bollocks as the deals been on the table to be signed since late December.

And finally is the rumour he's just doing this to keep people off his back and use his usual spin of it wasn't my fault. He's stalling so the Yanks walk away and Fawaz will then say he did everything he could. He has no intention of selling as he's still deluded enough to think he can still fix us. Like a committed gambler he's wanting just one more shot.

Overall all we need is for the idiot to finally go away. Then we get some peace and quiet round here hopefully. Instead of tedious Twitter rages and that Leetheo twat pretending he knows something when he clearly doesn;t because he never actually says what he claims he knows.
Tuesday, 3 January 2017

Forest Come Full Circle

It’s not long ago that Forest were struggling in the Championship, awaiting a new investment deal to take them on to the next step. Needing this to play catch up and with a relegation struggle with a manager that isn’t very popular. Even more coincidental is that we have a captain whose contract is up at the end of the season, and might well be leaving to a Midlands rival. And even more coincidental we have a young striker banging in goals for fun at youth level with people calling for him to be given a chance.

And yet here we are. The legacy of the Fawaz regime is that we are right back where he found us. He has been a failure. The club if anything is worse off, as the club have lost so many back room staff. Average attendances have plummeted. However if you actually look the attendances this time of year are quite similar but the recent mid-week games didn’t go above 18k.

Lansbury is in a to and fro. Subject to bids in region of £3mill from Aston Villa, with Derby also sniffing around, it is reminiscent of the Wes Morgan saga. Ben Brereton has a host of fans wanting him to be given a chance up front, in much the same way Patrick Bamford did 5 years ago.

Steve Cotterill was widely unpopular. Montanier isn’t there yet, but his popularity has plunged in recent weeks. If this was a normal season of Fawaz he would be gone. Fawaz though does not want to spend money at all. And neither would he really when in the next few days a new man would likely have to foot the bill of binning him off.

So ok Fawaz came in after that season, and a lot of what I’ve listed above isn’t his fault. But the guy had a blank template and the chance to move us on. And yet we are in the same boat as just before he came long. Full circle.

Fawaz promised so much, and for a short while it looked like it might be a good thing. I defended him for a while, but the O’Driscoll saga was a huge red flag. But I gave him time, he’d learn from his mistakes. But sadly those errors have gotten worse and worse. He will not accept any failure on his behalf. This is because of his sycophantic clings on who tell him he is doing the right thing. That loon Emad clearly has no football knowledge but he’s in Fawaz inner circle. And worse still they are trying to buy peoples love with Emads ticket give ways.

The big screens, the player investment, it was all material things. The real fabric of the club has stayed the same and not moved with the times. Commercially we barely have any presence. The Academy is in health despite of Fawaz not because of. The ground continues to age badly, and we had the whole Health and Safety disaster at the start of the season.

Fawaz has been a joke in the last two years. And his Twitter rants have becomes tiresome. The dawn of the new ear when Fawaz came in was a Chairman engaging with fans on Twitter. This was refreshing and nice, up until it was clearly obvious he wasn’t using this as a means to talk to fans, but also to try and grow his popularity by making decisions based on reacting to Twitter based fans.

The new regime will not be like this. As far as I can tell they aren’t active Twitter users. The problem will be now a certain breed of fan thinks this engagement is normal and will start decrying the fact the new regime don’t have an online presence. It’s not normal to have this, so why would they. I’ve seen some fans asking why the new American regime isn’t talking to fans on twitter. This is what caused half the problems in the first place!!!

But as I say, here we are. Struggling. 5 years have passed. 5 years where so much has happened, but so little has changed.



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