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Monday, 23 January 2017

Post Take-Over Collapse: How Will Fawaz Fund Forest?

Since the deal with the Americans collapsed there has been a lot of conjecture as to how Fawaz will fund the club through to the end of the season or at least prior to any further takeovers.

The weekend has seen a lot of off the pitch intrigue aside from the win at Forest. Fawaz perhaps somewhat emboldened by the past week or so has released a couple of statements and has even employed a new Chief Financial Officer.

The overall question will be though how will fund a club he clearly has so desperately tried avoided paying for. With both failed takeovers having had a period of time paying the wages, and even a debate with Marinakis around 2% of the deal down to the July Payment run (Fawaz didn’t want to pay) now Fawaz has to fund the club till you’d think June at the earliest, as no one is going to want to assume control of Forest until their future next season is assured.

That based on the SwissRamble piece and his proposed yearlong losses for 2015-16 being in the region of £21.5 million, I will therefore putting the running costs for the end of the season at £7mill. These are rough round up figures. We have now since this was calculated sold Lansbury and had a Bamford windfall which now comes in at around £4-4.5 million. There’s still a hefty short fall there and unless Fawaz has somehow secured backing then it might be a struggle.

The Burke money might have a little left over to fill the gap, but I figure that’d also go towards paying off Montanier. Not a penny of that has been spent up till yet. On any players, aside from the few hundred thousand on Portuguese flop Lica.

The following table shows the players linked with January with quoted figures in the press, with their rumoured wages.

Value of players for sale
wages saved (Est)
Lansbury
3500000
25000
Osborn
4000000
8000
Brereton
3000000
0
Mancienne
750000
25000
Assombalonga
7000000
30000
Cash
6000000
2000
Value of Potential Transfer fees
24250000
90000

That amounts to £24.2 mill. Obviously these figures could change or be wrong, if that be wages or the final fee. A total saving of around £90k per week on wages might also appeal to Fawaz. That figure also closely resembles the annual losses. But forgets the Burke, de Vries and Paterson fees.

Now obviously Lansbury has gone. That’s supposedly another £25k p/w saved on wages too, which equates to half a million quid there or there abouts. Now when players leave they often have loyalty bonuses built in, this may or may not be the case and we don’t know what fees might be payable there.

So taking the figures we are losing a year. That’s 400k per week rounded. That’d need £9mill to fund us to till June. This was all calculated at 22 weeks to start of June.  That’s right now looking at needing £8.5 mill to fund us with no further sales. Will Fawaz make up that gap? Maybe.

But that excludes what I said above about Burke and Co. So if we consider that equated to £13.5 mill, plus the Lansbury and Bamford fees, that’d be £17.5mill. So there’s still £4million to offset in the wider picture of yearly losses. Around the figure Osborn has been quoted as having been bid for.
Again, this basing figures on previous published figures. Things might be better/worse in this picture than what we are quoting. And if we sold Mancienne for instance, that’d be £550k we have saved wages wise, plus any fee bought in.

All in all it looks likely that if things are too believed, further player sales will be needed.
Put that against what one person told me that Fawaz current UK Bank balance is about £150k (how they know this I don’t knowso probabaly bollocks) and that he has been selling cars it would certainly look like he won’t be funding us, unless the family have given him funds to fund us till we get a new buyer and offset that loss. It’d also explain why he is holding out for bigger fees. Emad likes to peddle this is Fawaz life savings line. It’s not, its money lent to him by his family. Which he in turn loaned Forest. The debts are loans essentially to the al-Hasawi family.

I calculated this to see how many players he could sell to recoup losses before selling to Moores later or to any other buyer. If he held out to June and sold off assets to sell, what would he sell and then need to get back to his £50mill, but it’s become more about what he needs to run us.

I predict further sales. I hope I am wrong and that Fawaz has secured funds from elsewhere. 

Otherwise it might get even rockier.

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