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Sunday, 26 June 2016

Favourites for the Forest Job, and How It Keeps Changing

Ryan Giggs was all but getting announced as the new Nottingham Forest boss last week. Then it was Victor Sanchez and now one of the favourites is Marcos Silva because he just left Olympaikos, all the while Michel name has never left the top order of likely names. Throw in a few other names and you have a long list of people who have been rumoured to be "announced tomorrow."

So far this summer we have had a hefty list of candidates who have been the favourite for the job as boss. Not one of them has of course got the job, so it goes to show that the bookies favourite desn’t mean they are likely to get the job.

The bookies favourites have been Nigel Pearsons, Gus Poyet, Steve Evans, Neil Warnock,Nigel Clough, Ryan Giggs, Michel, Phillipe Montanier, etc. I could go on as it seems any new name instantly rises through the list as people decide it must be him,

And it seems many people don’t understand this link. Bookies of course are only reacting to news too, so lower the odds to reduce any potential losses, making someone the favourite merely reduces their vulnerability to be taken to the cleaners. Hence why these things aren’t a Tote.

This of course channels more news, outlets reports that this name leads the better, increasing the attention and perhaps lowering the odds further as more people deem it a foregone conclusion. Thus a managers odds shorten, not in part to likelihood, but in part to Bookies reacting to the news and interest and people perception that now its in the media it is more likely. If they shorten the odds it might discourage people from gambling on it, and therefore make less loss on this.

The Giggs thing became a perfect storm, his odds tumbled as people bet on it forcing the papers to speculate he was the next boss forcing more people to guess and speculate and shorted the odds further. To the point then it was decided that Giggs really must be the next boss because why else would he be the favourite, neatly forgetting the whole thing seemed to run purely on speculation. Nonething concrete ever linked Giggs.

What cement my opinion that  they don’t know is that we have been so often. And the fact that as I said so many have been favourite it really just go to show that Marinakis is probably keeping his cards close to his chest

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