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Sunday, 24 August 2014

Forest Goals - A Statistical Breakdown

Well I said we'd feature a lot of statistical break downs this season and here we go. Can't really do anything on the type of goals conceded as we just aren't conceding many yet.

We have a whole set of tables, algorithims and processes set up to bring these stats. We can pretty much focus in on one feature too, like goalscorer, assists, types of goal and look at those in the same detail we look here at a broad array of everything.

First up is a simple look at the overall goal scorers
a) Overall Goalscorers
Goalscorers

b) Home / Away Goals
Home / Away

c) Goal Method


d) Minute goals Scored












So we can see the basic break down of the goals. Antonio and Assombalonga have scored the most, the goals are equally split by header and shots,with a penalty, and they are pretty much evenly spread in when they are scored. Its even retty even between home and away goals too.

So what if we start looking deeper?

e) Goals From
Goals Scored From Range by number


f) Assists from
Assist from by number



These two brief analysis of plotting where the goals and asissts come from kind of show a pattern that we know from memory. The assists are coming from the right flank on the whole. They are then scored in the 18 yard box or the 6 yard box. We will break this down further in the future, but for now with just 11 goals scored is a basic approach. The addition of Burke and Hunt has seen the right side become dangerous. And using Antonio on the flank, as a tall winger means he's often attacking the ball with his head as these high crosses come in. We'll look at the assist type later.

g) Assists by Player and Method
Assists by player
h) Assists Method by Flanks

i) Assists by Scorer
Assists by goalscorer











These three graphs illustrate that there is a certain type of goal we described above being scored. Lofted crosses, and headers. We are scoring more headers at the moment than I remember us doing before. Hunt and Burke have provided handsomely, except for when Assombalonga scores. That's interesting. Assombalonga has been poaching a few goals, with close range efforts, and the penalty, so his goals come from other sources, whereas the rest seem to get provided by the right wing.

Finally some further goal analysis

j) Goal Method by Range




k) Scorer by method



l) Goal Method by Range


Basically the goals are coming from shots, usually right footed, or by headers as we discussed before. Both Fryatts goals have been headers, both similar type crosses, Assombalonga as we discussed gets a real variety, Antonio has doing well from the right footed lofted crosses. The fact that we have so many goals from one side of the 18 yard box and not the other points to this new stronger right sided combination. Its an area we have succeeded in, and surely teams will now look to close it out.

We will do further more in depth goal analysis as more goals are scored. This as we said before is a work in progress so bare with us. Graphs will evolve and adapt. There are some we have ready that just don;t have enough data yet.
We will also do similar analysis with goals conceded when more go in.


1 comments:

18394756-2bc8-11e4-8d5b-5fc52d1ef9ea said...

Great stuff, a little early in the season for some of the graphs it looks like but at the rate we're scoring you might be needing a more powerful computer to crunch the numbers by Christmas!

Looking forward to seeing more of this as the season goes on.

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