The Path to the Playoffs and Where Forest Need to Win (or Lose)

Ok, so every season isn’t the same, and this season might see a new record low or high points needed, or hell a different average, but we here at Forest 24-7 have been making some calculations to see what is needed to get promoted (hey, we are the form team in the division right now) or to just reach the lottery that is the playoffs.

What has been exposed is that on average we have left a charge for the automatic spots too late. In an average season even if we won all our remaining fixtures we would be left short points wise by a single one. Now Ok, this season might be different, but themes the facts.

Additionally I don’t think any fan with a modicum of sense is actually thinking we can currently go for top two. Maybe a few delusional extremists, but the large core know this is probably now beyond us.

But what of the playoffs? In an average season 73 points are needed based on the last 5 years. Two of those years 70 points is all that’s been required. We currently have 54. So on average that’s 19 points. Although could be as little as 16 points. Which is basically 3 points either way leeway. Based on going somewhere just below the bottom we reckon going for 20 points might be doable. But this is where things get trickier. That means winning 6, drawing 2 and allowing for 2 defeats. That would certainly be promotion form. Well let’s look at the remaining fixtures.

Nottm Forest V Wolves

Sat 9 Mar 15:00

Hull V Nottm Forest

Sat 16 Mar 15:00

Nottm Forest V Brighton

Sat 30 Mar 15:00

Burnley V Nottm Forest

Mon 1 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Blackpool

Sat 6 Apr 15:00

Cardiff V Nottm Forest

Sat 13 Apr 15:00

Middlesbrough V Nottm Forest

Tue 16 Apr 19:45

Nottm Forest V Barnsley

Sat 20 Apr 15:00

Millwall V Nottm Forest

Sat 27 Apr 15:00

Nottm Forest V Leicester

Now the Championship being the Championship, it is very hard to predict who will do what and when. It is notorious for anyone being able to beat anyone, and as such bankers are not always what they seem. That said if we need 6 wins, you have to identify the fact we have 5 homes left. 2 of those against struggling opposition. This includes 2 promotion chasing teams, Brighton and potentially the last say Playoff shootout between us and Leicester. As I said for simplicity sake, these we will pencil in as wins for now

Leaving another win and 2 draws required. Now we have two winnable away games, Burnley and Millwall, but let’s say for arguments sake we only need win one, Milwall is the harder place to go. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are not on great form, but their league positions, as well as Hull suggest that between these 3 we could absorb the two defeats we potentially can absorb. However on the crest we are currently on and on paper, the Hull game is the one I’d fancy us to maybe get something from.

Similarly should we fail to beat Leicester or Brighton, then you could look to the Burnley & Millwall games as both being wins.

This is all as I say basically guesswork, and football is NEVER this easy. But it does show how possible it is, but also how perilously poised our hopes are hanging by small threads. But look at where we were a month ago compared to now, and this was unthinkable to sit down and work out. If we can’t dream what can we do? We could lose the easier games, end up beating Middlesbrough and Hull and throw other cats amongst the pigeons as we are then taking points off those teams we are competing against

Exciting times ahead.

Heres the Maths